By Michael Carl
The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Monitor reports in its December 8th edition that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says he wants Russia’s military to be self-supporting and for Russia to build and maintain its own heavy military hardware, especially ships.
Putin’s statement is a possible reversal of the November announcement that Russia plans to buy up to as many as four French Mistral helicopter and troop carrying ships.
The Russian newspaper Ria Novosti reports in its December 9th edition that the Navy is still considering the purchase and will decide on purchasing the ship by the end of this year.
The possible purchase of the ship has caused dissension in the Russian military. General Makhmut Gareev is the President of the Academy of Military Sciences and a skeptic of the purchase. Former Commander of Russia’s Mediterranean Fleet and Chief of Naval Staff Valentin Selivanov completely opposes the purchase.
Joseph Farah’s G-2 Intelligence Bulletin reported on November 9th that the Russian Ministry of Defense planned to purchase the French vessel.
The move would have made it easier for the Russian military to move large numbers of soldiers and weapons in a shorter time period and make amphibious operations more efficient.
Defense analysts say the Russian purchase would be seen as a threat to Russia’s southern neighbour, Georgia.
However, the carrier purchase question reveals three details about Russian military capability.
Heritage Foundation Russian scholar Ariel Cohen says the Russian decision to purchase the Mistral is a veiled admission of Russian weakness.
“The Russians are trying to leap-frog their own technological backwardness by purchasing modern western military technology from different western sources,” Cohen says.
“The Russians were self sufficient after World War 2 and developing its own
weapons systems. The fact that they want to buy the Mistral indicates what dire
straits their shipbuilding industry really is,” Cohen explains.
Another issue behind the prospective ship purchase is a projection of Russian power.
“The Russians want to buy the Mistral because it can carry helicopters, up to 900 marines and can be used as a command and control ship. The Russians don’t have anything like it in their arsenal,” Cohen explains.
“Russia is still perceived as a threat by NATO, the Baltic States, Poland and by candidates to join NATO in the future,” Cohen continues.
“The naval assault ship is an ultimate tool of a projection of Russian power. It is used to capture cities from the sea and capture ports and military bases,” Cohen further explains. “The Russian admirals said they need this ship so that the mission against Georgia that took them 26-hours last summer would take them 40 minutes.”
“They want it in the Black Sea; they want it in the Baltic Sea and they’re even discussing a version of the Mistral ship with a reinforced hull for the Arctic Ocean,” Cohen observes. “Prime Minister Putin in a visit to Paris said Russia will put this ship anywhere it wants.”
Russia’s post World War 2 history involves aggression in the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, nations that only won their independence from Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Global Security Executive Director John Pike says to keep an eye on the Baltic.
“The Baltic states were bent out of shape after the announcement of the troop ship purchase,” and because of their history, “The Baltic states seem to be the most concerned about this move,” Pike says.
Knowing that the Russian purchase of the ship is part of a Putin power play, Cohen questions the west’s wisdom in selling the technology to Russia.
“The Russians are not just trying to buy the ship, they’re trying to buy unmanned aerial vehicles from Israel, so this is about the west being naïve enough to sell the Russians what they want without getting anything in exchange,” Cohen explains. “For example the Russians are still occupying up to 20-percent of Georgia’s territory they captured in the August 2008 war. The Russians pulled out of major treaties and have held military exercises with mock nuclear strikes on Poland.”
“I don’t think the time is right for massive military sales of equipment to Russia,” Cohen adds.
If the ship purchase helps Russia project military power, why would Putin publicly announce his reservations about the deal?
Harvard University’s Belfer Center for International Relations fellow, Retired Army Brigadier Kevin Ryan says Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is covering his bases.
“What’s important here is that Putin may be reversing his decision. If he’s sincere about the guidance and he follows through on making it happen, he will strengthen Russia’s industrial base and resurrect industry that can produce both military and civilian manufacturing capability,” General Ryan observes.
Increasing manufacturing capability at home could be the major policy objective behind Putin’s hesitation. General Ryan says Putin may be trying to rebuild Russian industry.
“Russia’s military hardware is the only line of products built by Russia that anyone really wants to buy. Putin’s possible decision to stop the deal is designed to reinvigorate its industrial base so it can build products that other nations want to buy,” General Ryan explains.
However, Global Security Executive Director John Pike says the announced hesitation could be a business move to get a better deal from the French.
“Some of the announced hesitation could be ‘contractor politics.’”
The Mistral purchase and possible withdrawal from the deal coincides with a November 11th report in Jane’s Defence that the Russian navy plans to reactivate two Kirov class cruisers.
Jane’s reports that Russia’s Colonel General Vladimir Popovkin says “the Ministry of Defence has decided to renovate and modernise its heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser units Admiral Lazarev and Admiral Nakhimov.”
Global Security’s John Pike says activation of the Kirov’s is consistent with Russian naval actions and is also designed to flex Russia’s naval muscle.
“The Kirov’s are really big and really good looking, so they are an ideal means of showing the flag – Russia is the only country with nuclear-powered battle cruisers, so it is a real signature ship.”
Presently the Russian fleet has 18 conventional submarines and 15 nuclear subs, about 23 destroyers , five cruisers, and only one aircraft carrier.
Posted under News
This post was written by mcarl on December 11, 2009
